Classic buy low sell high situation here with the Gators just losing at the swamp to a FCS team and won't be going bowling for the first time since 1979. This team is down, but with there biggest in state rival coming to the swamp this has become their bowl game. I think it's the exact reason they lost last week as the team was clearly looking ahead to this week against Florida State. This game was going to be bigger and better than anything they would have gotten from the bowl selection committee. Better yet Florida State does not need a blow out here. They just need to show up win, and win in the ACC Championship game and they're off to Pasadena to play in the national championship.
Even with all that I still looked under the hood to see if I could really find value on this play. First thing I noticed was Florida State is out scoring opponents 55-11 on average, but this is the best defense they have played all year even if the Gators are without a some of their best players. Florida State really has not faced a team that's capable of stopping the pass. They've faced a few that are good in total defense but none of which are dominant in both and Florida is #1 in pass efficiency defense at home as opponent QB's have a 70.7 QB rating. The second best pass defense at home is 10 points off. Jameis Winston is about to get tested for the first time all season against a top pass defense and he won't have an easy time getting yards on the ground either the way the Gators have defended the run.
Bottom line the ACC is a weak conference and I don't see Winston having a great game with all the criminal accusations going on. I wouldn't be shocked to see Florida have a chance to win this game in the end if they can force some turnovers.
